Bears vs. Commanders: 5 Bold Predictions for Monday Night Football Showdown

When Chicago Bears line up against the Washington Commanders on Monday night, the stakes feel a bit larger than the usual week‑to‑week grind. The clash is set for Bears vs. CommandersNorthwest Stadium in Landover, Maryland, kicking off at 8:15 p.m. ET and will be broadcast nationally on ABC. On paper, Washington holds a clear edge, but the Bears have the momentum of two straight wins fresh off a week‑5 bye, so the game could swing either way.

Background and Stakes

Historically, the two clubs have met 54 times since 1932, with Washington edging a slim 28‑25‑1 series lead. More recently, the Commanders have turned Monday Night Football into a personal arena, winning four straight MNF contests dating back to 2020 – a run that began when the franchise was still the Redskins. For Chicago, the point of pride is different: a struggling NFC North squad that has finished dead‑last in that division three seasons running (2022‑2024), posting a combined 15‑36 record. The Bears aim to prove that Ben Johnson’s first‑year rebuilding plan, anchored by rookie phenom Caleb Williams, can finally break that pattern.

Statistical Outlook

• ESPN’s win‑probability model gives Washington a 64.5 % chance of victory versus Chicago’s 35.2 %.
• BetMGM lists the Commanders as 4‑point favorites (‑210 moneyline) while Fox Sports shows a –5.5 point spread at –110 odds.
• The over/under hovers between 49.5 and 50 points across most sportsbooks.
• Washington leads the league in rushing yards per game (156.4) while the Bears rank 31st in rushing yards allowed (164.5) and dead‑last in yards allowed per carry (6.1).
• Chicago’s defense has surrendered nearly 30 points per game, including a 24‑point outing against the Raiders.

Those numbers paint a picture of a classic “run‑vs‑run” showdown. The Commanders will likely lean on their ground game to chew up the clock, while the Bears need to protect the quarterback and flip the field with quick passes.

Expert Predictions and Betting Lines

Rohit Ponnaiya of Covers.com explains the odds gap: “The Bears are 31st in the league in rushing yards allowed per game (164.5) while ranking dead‑last in yards allowed per carry (6.1). That’s bad news against a Commanders attack that leads the NFL with 156.4 rushing yards per game.” Meanwhile, Billy Ward of Action Network points out a different angle: “The Bears have a top‑10 scoring offense through four games of the Ben Johnson era, but they rank 17th in second‑half scoring. If they can fix the second‑half stall, they could keep the game close.”

Prediction models vary: Dimers.com pegs the final at 27‑23 for Washington, Sportsnaut leans 28‑24, and Fox Sports’ algorithm is more bullish, forecasting a 32‑18 Commanders win. The spread‑range suggests the game could stay within a single touchdown, but a few key plays may tip the scales.

Key Player Matchups

At the heart of the matchup are quarterbacks Caleb Williams (Bears) and Jayden Daniels (Commanders). The two faced off on Oct. 27, 2024, when Washington eked out an 18‑15 win. Williams, now in his second year as starter, has lifted his offensive EPA to 22nd in the league, a modest jump from 26th last season. Daniels, meanwhile, continues to thrive in Washington’s up‑tempo, no‑huddle offense that ranks third fastest in the NFL.

On the ground, the Bears will rely on rookie speedster Luther Burden, whose breakaway runs have already sparked a few highlight reels. The Commanders, however, field a veteran back corps averaging 156.4 rushing yards per game – the league’s best. Defensive coordinator Dennis Allen (Bears) will need to devise a game plan that limits those yards, perhaps by stacking the box and forcing Washington into the air.

Special teams could also swing the pendulum. Rome Odunze, the Bears’ rising receiver, is listed at +140 for an anytime touchdown on bet365, reflecting his growing role in the passing attack. For Washington, Daniels’ 2+ passing touchdown prop sits at +120, a nod to his proficiency in the red zone.

What’s at Stake for Both Teams

If the Commanders pull off the win, they’ll notch their fifth straight Monday Night Football victory, extending a streak that began during the franchise’s Redskins era. A win also keeps them a half‑game ahead of the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC East, reinforcing their playoff push.

For Chicago, a triumph would be more than just a notch in the win column. It would mark the first time the Bears have beaten a Monday night opponent since 2020, and it could serve as a turning point in Ben Johnson’s tenure. The Bears have trimmed their sack‑percentage from a league‑worst 10 % in prior years to a respectable 4.55 % (10th overall), indicating that the protection scheme is finally clicking. A victory would validate those adjustments and could rejuvenate a fan base that’s grown accustomed to disappointment.

Both clubs also have a financial angle: TV ratings for Monday Night Football remain a coveted commodity for the NFL, and a close, high‑scoring affair could boost advertising revenues for ABC. Meanwhile, sportsbooks stand to collect a healthy amount of action on a game that has drawn sharp money to Washington’s side.

Key Facts

• Date & Time: October 13, 2025, 8:15 p.m. ET
• Location: Northwest Stadium, Landover, MD
• TV: ABC (national)
• Spread: Washington –5.5 (Fox Sports), –4.5 (bet365)
• Over/Under: 49.5–50 points
• Win Probability: Washington 64.5 %, Chicago 35.2 % (ESPN)